Government advisers call for 81% cut in UK emissions by 2035

The Government is preparing to unveil plans for cutting emissions by 2035, under the global Paris Agreement which commits countries to take action on curbing temperature rises to prevent the worst impacts of warming.

The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has recommended the UK commit to cutting emissions by at least 81% on 1990 levels by the middle of the 2030s, under its Paris action plan – known as a “nationally determined contribution” or NDC.

In a letter to Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, the independent advisory committee said the target is “ambitious, deliverable and consistent” with the emission reductions required for the country to meet its own legally binding cap on the amount of carbon it can emit between 2033 to 2037.

“It is informed by the latest science, technological developments, and the UK’s national circumstances,” it read.

It comes after Mr Miliband asked the committee earlier this year for guidance on setting the UK’s next NDC emissions target as the Cop29 summit approaches in Azerbaijan in November.

Governments are legally bound to submit new NDCs every five years, outlining how they plan to cut emissions over the next decade.

Countries are due to table their new proposals for 2025 to 2035 ahead of Cop30 in Brazil next December.

In 2020, the then-Conservative government set a goal of 68% emission cuts by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, which was in line with the CCC’s advice at the time.

But the committee recently warned that the UK is off track to meet its 2030 climate targets, with only around one third of the emissions reductions required covered by credible plans – mostly in the electricity supply and surface transport sectors.

In its letter to the Energy Secretary, it said: “Setting a target is not enough. The UK must back up its international commitments through actions here at home.

“We welcome the actions already taken by the Government on renewable electricity, energy efficiency in rented homes, and carbon capture and storage.

“We need to see further urgent action to speed up deployment of low-carbon solutions such as electric vehicles, heat pumps and tree planting.”

The Paris Agreement commits countries to keeping temperature rises “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit them to 1.5C, seen as the threshold beyond which the worst impacts of climate change will be felt.

To meet the 1.5C target, the world’s carbon emissions must fall to net zero by 2050, with significant cuts in pollution and any remaining emissions offset by planting trees or using technology to capture carbon.

Professor Piers Forster said: “With climate damages already felt around the world, targeting an 81% emissions reduction by 2035 sets the right level of ambition.

“Our analysis shows this can be achieved in a way that benefits jobs and the economy, provided we hit the country’s 2030 target – set in line with the CCC’s advice in 2020.

“The technologies needed to achieve it are available, at a competitive price, today.”

He added: “We need to see the Government’s commitment to climate reflected in the upcoming Budget.

“I have no doubt that the United Kingdom can once again be a leader on the international stage – in both deeds and words.”

Environmental groups have suggested the Government go further than the CCC recommendations, including calls for UK plans to include international aviation and shipping (IAS) emissions, which can be excluded in line with the UN convention.

Dr Doug Parr, policy director at Greenpeace UK, said: “The Climate Change Committee has given ministers a useful benchmark for climate action but they may want to aim higher to show true global leadership and take full responsibility for the UK’s historic role as a major carbon polluter.

“Actions speak louder than words, and true leadership means the government must also set out tangible plans to deliver on its 2035 target.”

Isabella O’Dowd, WWF’s head of climate policy said: “We urge the UK government to show global leadership by going further and adopt climate targets for international aviation and shipping.

“Acting now will revitalise the UK economy, increase our energy security and support a just transition for all sectors.”

A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: “Britain is back in the business of climate leadership because the only way to protect current generations in the UK is by making Britain a clean energy superpower, and the only way to protect our children and future generations is by leading global climate action.

“We are grateful to the Climate Change Committee for this expert advice, which we will consider carefully before we announce an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution target at COP29 to help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.”